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The Weekly Alpha — Issue #1

Date: July 15, 2025

📊 Macro Pulse

- US CPI cooled to 2.9% YoY — first sub-3% print in 2 years.

- Fed swaps now price just 1 cut in 2025.

- 10Y yields briefly dipped below 4.1% before bouncing.

- China signals more credit easing, boosting global risk sentiment.

🔥 Top 3 Alpha Ideas

  1. NVDA (Nvidia) — Bullish continuation off consolidation, AI order book reacceleration.
    Entry: $123.50 | Target: $138 | Stop: $117.50
  2. GLD (Gold ETF) — Breakout setup as real yields compress.
    Entry: $213 | Target: $228 | Stop: $207
  3. TSLA (Tesla) — Oversold bounce + positive Q2 deliveries surprise.
    Entry: $263 | Target: $292 | Stop: $255

🧠 Smart Money Signals

  • Unusual call flow in SMCI, NVDA, and ARM — likely institutional positioning pre-earnings.
  • Insider buying in LLY (Eli Lilly) after new weight-loss trial data leaked early.
  • Top 5% fund ownership rising in PLTR — suggests growing hedge fund conviction.

🚨 Risk Radar

  • 📆 July 16: Netflix & Bank of America earnings
  • 📆 July 17: Powell speaks at IMF policy forum
  • 📆 July 19: Japan CPI (watch yen carry pressure)

💡 Apex Insight

Retail flows are cooling. AI hype is not. This divergence will resolve violently. The pros are rotating into cash-flow machines with optionality — not memes. Stay sharp, stay data-led.